The Hilton Head Realtors recently held a symposium to discuss the state of the real estate market entitled “Why Buy in a Recession”. One of the key presentations was a graph of the average sales price in Sea Pines from 1987 to present. There were two conclusions drawn from this graph, one that in the recessions since 1987 the sales price in Sea Pines has recovered from the bottem within 3 years. In other words, from the bottem of the sales price the prices are back to the previous peak within three years. This is good news for home purchasers contemplating a purchase in Sea Pines and on Hilton Head Island, as they say, as goes Sea Pines so goes the market. A home buyer that buys anywhere near the bottem should enjoy a nice gain in home appreciation within 3 years of the bottem of the sales prices assuming that the recovery from this recession resembles recovery from previous recessions.
The second conclusion that was drawn is that Sea Pines home prices are down 35%. The graph charted the average sales price in Sea Pines for each year since 1987. The graph listed the peak in average sales price as 2007 and a decline in the average sales price of 35% in 2008. Since I live and sell homes in Sea Pines this conclusion got my attention. I am not an expert in statistics but I did take a few statistics classes while I was at Virgina Tech and this average price decrease seemed high so I decided to review the sales and see if there was any other difference in the sales that would explain the decrease in the average sales price. This is what I found:
169 Homes Sold
41 Sales over $2,000,000
13 Oceanfront Properties Sold between $4,000,000 and $7,725,000
11 Home Sales Under $500,000
138 Homes Sold
15 Homes Sold over $2,000,000
2 Oceanfront Properties Sold between $4,360,000-$4,800,000
21 Home Sales Under $500,000
Please note that these numbers do not include villa sales.
It is evident to me that the number of oceanfront home sales and sales over $2,000,000 in 2007 compared to the number of these sales in 2008 distort the results of a graph based on the average sales price. I don’t know how much the prices have decreased in Sea Pines, certainly prices have decreased, but I don’t believe that prices have decreased by 35%. Maybe I’ll go back and do a graph of the median sales price and see how the results are different.
Please email me at firstname.lastname@example.org if you would like a copy of the graph presented at the symposium.